roon (OpenAI), Sep 12 2026: "i won't lie to you, i think open source will be banned before too long after some major disaster. and when the day comes, you'll agree with me. i hope kimi and deepseek etc keep making models but keep them monitored on an api where they should be."

A reply argued the ban is what closed labs need: they're unprofitable, need to IPO, and need the government to hand them a monopoly via regulation. This market tests both claims. Answers are independent and resolve separately.

Answer 1: US bans open-weight frontier AI models before 2030

Resolves YES if, on or before Dec 31, 2029, the US federal government enacts a statute, executive order, or final agency rule that prohibits the public release of model weights for general-purpose AI models, either outright or above a capability/compute threshold. A threshold ban counts as long as it covers at least one model that had already been released as open weights at the time of enactment, or one that clearly would otherwise have been.

Counts as enacted: signed into law, EO signed, or final rule published, even if the effective date is later.

Does not count: export controls that only restrict transfer abroad while domestic release stays legal; state laws alone; voluntary commitments; proposed bills or draft rules; licensing regimes that in practice still allow open-weight release.

Answers 2 and 3: OpenAI + Anthropic combined valuation on Jan 1, 2029, conditional on a ban

Both use the same $4 trillion (nominal USD) threshold. The condition is a ban meeting the Answer 1 definition, enacted on or before Dec 31, 2028 (a year earlier than Answer 1's deadline, so the valuation snapshot comes after the ban).

• Answer 2 ("IF ban"): N/A if no qualifying ban is enacted by Dec 31, 2028. Otherwise YES if combined valuation ≥ $4T, NO if not.

• Answer 3 ("IF no ban"): N/A if a qualifying ban is enacted by Dec 31, 2028. Otherwise YES if combined valuation ≥ $4T, NO if not.

The gap between Answers 2 and 3 is the market's estimate of how much a ban is worth to the two biggest closed labs.

Valuation measurement (as of Jan 1, 2029):

• Publicly traded: market cap at the close of the last trading day of 2028.

• Private: post-money valuation of the most recent primary round or tender/secondary sale, as reported by at least two of Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, Reuters, The Information, or the company itself. Use the more recent of primary vs. tender if both fall within the prior 12 months.

• Acquired: acquisition equity value at close, or the acquirer's reported implied value of the unit.

• Defunct with no acquisition: $0.

Reference points (Sep 2026): Anthropic last raised at $965B (May 2026) and is reportedly targeting a $2T IPO; OpenAI last raised at $852B (Mar 2026) with secondary marks near $475B. Combined primary marks are roughly $1.8T today.

I'll resolve on the plain reading of enacted text plus mainstream reporting. Answers 2 and 3 resolve in early Jan 2029; Answer 1 resolves by early Jan 2030.