Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the effective tariff rate for the United States in Q4 2026, defined as 100*(Customs duties)/(Imports of goods). I will resolve as per this FRED dataset by the St Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Background

The tariff rate for Q4 2024 was 2.63%. At the time of creation of this question, the highest rate since the start of this dataset was in Q4 of 1971, at 8.67%.

[Notes: I will resolve upon the first publication of a datapoint for Q4 2026. If FRED updates the dataset, I will update the resolution. If this dataset stops being published, I'll find an equivalent.]

See the Q4 2025 version of this question: