US effective tariff rate in Q4 2026?
4
200Ṁ628Dec 31
-3 %
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
98.2%
> 0%
92%
> 3%
88%
> 6%
50%
> 9%
50%
> 12%
50%
> 15%
7%
> 18%
1.5%
> 21%
Resolution Criteria
This market resolves based on the effective tariff rate for the United States in Q4 2026, defined as 100*(Customs duties)/(Imports of goods). I will resolve as per this FRED dataset by the St Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e
Background
The tariff rate for Q4 2024 was 2.63%. At the time of creation of this question, the highest rate since the start of this dataset was in Q4 of 1971, at 8.67%.
[Notes: I will resolve upon the first publication of a datapoint for Q4 2026. If FRED updates the dataset, I will update the resolution. If this dataset stops being published, I'll find an equivalent.]
See the Q4 2025 version of this question:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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