Will there be an SBF TV series or movie before his trial is over?
64
475
805
resolved Nov 8
Resolved
YES

Elizabeth Holmes has been able to enjoy several very excellent documentaries and dramatizations of her scandel while still a free woman. Will SBF have the same, uh, privilege??

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@NicoDelon Why did it take you so long to find these!?!?! LOL!!! You win!!

bought Ṁ475 of YES

@BTE "prediction" markets 😅

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@HenriThunberg Figuring out something happened is just as important as predicting when : )

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@BTE they all came out during the trial, it seems, when we were all too busy reading the news and listening to podcasts

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-ruin-ftx-documentary/ (This came out before the verdict was reached, so should resolve regardless. Premiered on Bloomberg TV. @BTE resolution criteria was kind of lose but I think strong argument this should resolve yes)

predicted NO

@JCE I had seen this last week sometime but it is unclear to me this is either a documentary or a series, certainly it is not comparable to the example of Elizabeth Holmes. More specifically, John Carryrou created a ton of great content on Holmes while at the WSJ that included a series of videos. But I would argue this is just the continuation of the same journalism he was doing when he first broke the story in the newspaper and not a documentary. The Bloomberg "documentary" appears to be just a continuation of the fantastic reporting they have already done on SBF. Matt Levine and Odd Lots alone are the best stuff ever written or recorded about the subject including the best interviews with SBF himself, but the best hits recompiled does not a documentary make.

predicted YES

@BTE I think it's clearly a documentary. Might be interspersed with stock footage but the interviews are high quality and extensive (not just Bloomberg reporters). It's an hour and 45 minutes and premiered on Bloomberg TV, which has 310 million viewers worldwide (at least according to wikipedia).

bought Ṁ200 of YES

@JCE i betted YES on the premise of documentary being explicitly mentioned in the description.

predicted NO

@JCE I will watch it tonight. But again this is a news organization with journalists, not a production studio with filmmakers. But I will give it a fair shake. I have consumed most of the Bloomberg content on SBF so it will have to be substantially original to count.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@JCE they even call it a documentary!

predicted YES

@BTE I would consider Bloomberg a media company, but I'm not sure what that matters. If it had been CNN would it have changed anything? They clearly did separate interviews and produced them for it. They're stretched thin for footage but...it's definitely a documentary about SBF and FTX.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon @JCE having watched 5 random minutes of it so far I will acknowledge this is definitely a documentary. I should have watched it the first time I saw it!! Damn.

predicted YES

Lol and not like this is the best metric but it's included on the website topdocumentaryfilms.com https://topdocumentaryfilms.com/ruin-money-ego-deception-ftx/

Do you consider the trial to be over or are you like other markets including sentencing?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@NicoDelon I bet assuming sentencing since the market is still open

predicted NO

@NicoDelon I don't understand why I am not getting so many notifications, sorry about missing this. Yes I am waiting until sentencing.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@BTE what about the documentary linked above?

predicted NO

@Joshua I didn't construe a documentary to be within "TV series or movie". I presumed some sort of dramatization with some Asberger's patient playing SBF.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@Joshua I just responded above.

predicted YES

@KevinLobLaw @Joshua @BTE I also think

'documentary and dramatization' would imply there doesn't need to be dramatization. It's a "Bloomberg Original" feature length doc and it also streams on all these providers.