Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
Will the US deliver ATACMS long range missiles to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
20
390Ṁ6412resolved Oct 17
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predictedYES 1y
@42irrationalist Fuck yes! LOL, sorry for being so intense. I appreciate you and occasionally I am quick on the trigger with resolutions but this is not one.
predictedYES 1y
@BTE I appreciate you too. I think it's very likely ATACMS are in Ukraine — I generally trust WSJ to correctly report things. I prefer when market creators give some time before resolving and hear all the opinions.
Yeah 3 stars is definitely too steep, I changed it to a 4 star. I feel like a resolution should come with a few words of reasons for why the market resolved the way it resolved.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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