Resolves YES once more than >$2Bln worth of arms sales are approved by the Biden administration during 2023. Resolves NO if by the end of 2023 total arms sales by the US to Taiwan <$2Bln.
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I am so pissed my limit orders canceled on the Lk99 market because of this bullshit. You screwed me @SirCryptomind
⚠UNRESOLVED #2 ; Re-Opening Until End Of Year ; If @BTE Decides to resolve again, that is on them.
📢 Can anyone please show where greater than $2 Billion was approved by Biden or Biden Administration @BTE ?
📝I would not consider a prior presidents agreements to count for Biden.
📝Wiki page, it still is only 1.56 Billion.
📝If you use Taiwan Defense & National Security it is at $1.86 Billion.
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SOURCE LINK: WIKI
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$1,559,200,000
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@traders
Sorry for the repost, but I want this up top to get comments, replies, proof.
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This Also Says 2020 and "Proposed sale"
This is the first step the DSCA takes before making it publicly known of proposed sales or transfers.
SOURCE LINK
This is the step DSCA takes to make it publicly known here at this source link
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Which is in line with what @BTE posted also from 2020
https://www.dsca.mil/sites/default/files/mas/Taiwan_20-68.pdf
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Than you have this: SOURCE LINK
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OTHER SOURCE LINKS :
85 FR 80058 - Arms Sales Notification
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1.86 Billion (No proof of under which administration, just general information.)
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USTBC(US Taiwan Business Council)
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DoD Contract Announcements Mentioning Taiwan – 2023
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DoD Contract Announcements Mentioning Taiwan – 2022
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DoD Contract Announcements Mentioning Taiwan – 2021
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@SirCryptomind WTF is happening?? Nobody voted to approve this funding until this year. The title of the question is about approval!! Not when the state department first starts the approval process!!
@SirCryptomind The price of the sale has also been updated to the actual price not the projected price from 2020.
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@chrisjbillington So you could sell your NO. Obviously. I am cool like that. I thought you would catch on. Again, you're welcome.
@BTE Well I did sell, and now it seems like your re-resolution was also incorrect. So...thanks. Now I lose Ṁ1.1k even if this does get re-resolved to be correct. Congratulations on stealing my mana.
@BTE
⚠UNRESOLVED
📢Discord complaint of possible mis-resolution
📝Gathering information & evaluating proof from both sides. (Other Mod(s) may intervene or takeover at their choosing)
@SirCryptomind Unresolving should not be done like this and when there’s not detailed resolution criteria it’s the market creator who should have discretion. I don’t have any intention of extending the closing date.
@SirCryptomind There is still $650mm in draw down authorization available to the White House so to count it all as if it happened in 2022 is ludicrous. The Congress allocated funds but the Executive administers and allocates them. In this case they allocated about a third of what is available and in 2024 they will probably allocate the remainder.
@SirCryptomind in fact I don’t believe the president is obligated to send the arms at all. I believe that is what Trump did to Ukraine with his quid pro quo.
@BTE it's still not a sale, it is a direct transfer of military aid the US is making, sending its own DoD stocks to an ally in order to further US interests.
to count it all as if it happened in 2022 is ludicrous
The question is about approvals. Actual sales contracts can play out over many years. The backlog of approved arms sales from the US to Taiwan is currently $19B, much larger than this $1B. An $8B sale of F-16s was approved in 2019, but deliveries have not yet commenced. I'm sure sales approvals from this year will be in practice rolled out over some time as well, yet are rightly counted for resolution of this question.
$1B allocated over two years doesn't sound that ludicrous when sales are often that slow anyway, especially when direct transfer of existing DoD stocks will be faster than sales that are subject to manufacturer lead times (which as you said is likely the reason they're doing this: they're avoiding sales because sales are slow, and it's in the US's interests for Taiwan to get military aid sooner).
I also notice that $10B of military aid to Taiwan is listed on the page you cited for resolution on Dec 6th, 2022. I believe this includes the $1B we're talking about here, of which $345M was drawn down in 2023. So your page lists it both in 2022 and in 2023, and I've been arguing that the 2022 bit it what should count as "approval" for the purposes of this question, and you've been arguing that the 2023 bit should be what counts.
You will also notice that other markets on this site about aid (not sales) being approved are resolving on legislation being signed into law, not based on when they are specifically drawn down and provisioned (they're having shitfights over other things, but not related to that distinction). I think you had a market related to aid approvals yourself once, though I can't say I understand how it resolved.
It's true that aid being approved seems to be less specific than sales being approved, with the details likely to be fleshed out latter. However, it's not like sales contracts are always nailed down fully as well - approvals for sales of spare parts, for example, sound like they will approve a dollar upper limit and then the spare parts get ordered on-demand, which makes sense.
It's noteable I think that we can only have this debate about what year it was approved, and whether the total dollar amount vs the specific provisioning is what matters, because it is an aid package, not a sale. Sales are simpler! Since this aid isn't a sale, that makes it more complex. It also should disqualify it from counting for the purposes of a question asking about sales.
By the way, the 80M package listed under August 29 2023 on the page you linked is also not a sale:
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/30/politics/us-taiwan-foreign-military-financing-program/index.html
The Biden administration has approved funding for the first-ever transfer of US military equipment to Taiwan under a program typically saved for sovereign nations, according to a notification sent to Congress on Tuesday.
The package – which is part of the State Department’s foreign military financing (FMF) program – totals $80 million and will be paid for by US taxpayers.
“FMF will be used to strengthen Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities through joint and combined defense capability and enhanced maritime domain awareness and maritime security capability,” the department wrote in its notification to Congress that was reviewed by CNN.
@chrisjbillington You are completely contradicting yourself on two separate markets. On this one you are saying that finalizing the budget is the key date that should matter, but on the Ken Griffin market you are saying the exact opposite, stating that the "contract date" is what you think is important. The date the offer is made and accepted would be more consistent. Actually based on your logic for this market, what matters is the moment of budgeting future spending. But you can't spend the 2023 budget in 2022, you can only earmark it. I think you are really good at bullying people into accepting your point of view and I am not here for that.
@chrisjbillington The source I said I was using was right there in the comments and I believe you said you didn't read that before betting, so I fail to see how you can then decide to undo the resolution. That is completely unfair. @SirCryptomind
@chrisjbillington You should have read the info at the link and asked me to clarify if you were unsure before betting.
@chrisjbillington Guess what?!? I just found a $1.17Bln deal approved by Congress this week!!! 400 Harpoon Missiles!!
@chrisjbillington This deal is not yet included in the list of deals on the link I had originally shared. Since Biden only tonight signed the 2024 Defense Authorization Act it has only been official for a few hours. Thanks for reminding me to check the Defense Authorization for new deals!!!
@chrisjbillington And this is definitely a sale that was originally announced in April when approved by Taiwan's parliament. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/04/11/boeing-harpoon-missile-award/
On this one you are saying that finalizing the budget is the key date that should matter, but on the Ken Griffin market you are saying the exact opposite, stating that the "contract date" is what you think is important.
Uh, in the real-estate case, the contract date is the earlier date with the vaguer monetary amounts, and the settlement date is the later date when things are more concrete. Anyway I think the situations are different enough for the comparison to be non-obvious, I kind of don't understand your point.
The source I said I was using was right there in the comments
You didn't say this link comprised resolution criteria, it's just a link with information. The criteria said "sales". Just because I didn't check the link and verify your arithmetic only included things that were called sales doesn't mean you're correct. You made a mistake. It's not that hard to understand.
Guess what?!? I just found a $1.17Bln deal approved by Congress this week!!!
Ah, but it's not on the list in the link yet - if that's your resolution criteria, surely we should only resolve if it appears there before end of year?
That's obviously silly, and so is the idea that a random link you posted in the comments is definitive without you having said so. Congratulations on lucking into your misresolution retroactively becoming correct.
@chrisjbillington I should have reopened and let you buy it down to 10 percent before dropping the "lucky" update. You're welcome.
@BTE You could have, but you definitely shouldn't have.
...so why is the market still open? You're hoping someone else will bet it down still?
Just as an FYI to everyone involved, the 400 Harpoon missiles are on the link @BTE originally shared. They were listed under a wider deal for Harpoon systems that is recorded for October 26 2020.
*imho the use of 'up to 400' in that entry adds some ambiguity and it would be sensible to see whether the source would list the confirmation separately or not
@JoshuaWilkes That is a different deal. Different price. That deal was for more than twice as much as this one.
I don't think so. The article you linked announcing the missile deal makes it clear enough it is part of the 2020 package
@JoshuaWilkes No it’s about when it was approved by US and that happened this year and is part of this authorization. Since this is a sale it had to be approved by the appropriate congressional committee. Similar approval took place in Taiwan in April to authorize purchase.
@JoshuaWilkes Sure, but they weren’t approved for sale until this year. So it is irrelevant.
@BTE I think you can make that determination as creator. However, if the source you previously cited lists them as approved in 2020, and the Wikipedia entry for US arms sales also lists them for 2020, shouldn't that give you pause that maybe you are making the wrong decision?
@JoshuaWilkes But it says in those listing that the price is tentative and it’s contingent upon future approval. And the question is about approval, not when the State dept initiates the approval process. Make sense?
@BTE Your argument makes sense, but two things underpinning it do not.
Firstly:
The listings don't say it's contingent on future approval. They say that possible or potential sales have been approved.
The reports from April say that a contract (s) have been awarded.
The article from this month (the Maven one) is not serious. It says that Harpoons are torpedoes. Moreover I've now read the relevant section of the NDAA (1829) and it doesn't provide further approval for the missile sale, it says that Congress is concerned about the progress of a sale already approved and wants a report on it.
Secondly:
Just a few hours ago you said that you were using the forumarmstrade page as a source and then that the reason this sale wasn't on there is that it is so recent. It doesn't seem justifiable that you can then change your justification for the resolution and say it's irrelevant that the sale is on that source.
I accept that my understanding of this topic is imperfect, and if forumarmstrade (whom I know nothing about) or Wikipedia (whom I like) were to subsequently add an entry for December 2023 that supplements or replaces the October 2020 listing for the approval of the sale of these missiles it would completely reverse my opinion on this.
Reposted at top of page.