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@BTE New Niger leader announced by the military-backed coup: https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/28/africa/niger-coup-general-state-tv-appearance-intl/index.html#:~:text=Bazoum%20took%20office%20in%202021,independence%20from%20France%20in%201960.&text=%E2%80%9CThe%20hard%2Dwon%20achievements%20will%20be%20safeguarded.

Niger general appears on state TV as new leader following coup | CNN

A Niger general, Abdourahamane Tiani, appeared on state television as the country’s new leader following a military coup that sparked international condemnation.

I think this can resolve Yes.

@AaronKreider agreed

What are the NO betters thinking??

@BTE base rate of incorrectly buying this market to 99....

@BTE also you're buying yes, which is not a good sign given your track record

@jskf I didn't realize it was at 99 percent. But that seems perfectly okay when it has 100 percent already happened.

@BTE was gonna post an own based on your calibration graph at 99% but your calibration is actually quite good :(

@BTE sooo this is resolving shortly?

@jskf @Stralor I would like feedback if you all think it should resolve?

lol didn't realize how much this was actually bought down. I haven't checked any news on the relevant event so idk.

@BTE open to your discretion re: uncertainty around the events. sounds like you're convinced and I'm happy either way. buying in some more in case you're keen to resolve now, but I won't begrudge waiting for more info

@BTE I would wait for a new Niger leader to be announced. But there is no doubt that the government has been overthrown. The coup leaders have successfully suspended political activity and the military has sided with the coup. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/niger-president-says-democracy-will-be-saved-following-coup-2023-07-27/

Niger coup widely condemned, countries urge return to order

Niger President Mohamed Bazoum remained held in the presidential palace on Thursday afternoon and it was unclear who was in charge of the country after soldiers on Wednesday evening declared a military coup that sparked widespread condemnation.

@jskf what's his track record look like?

@higherLEVELING

@jskf o snap ok. i wasn't sure what you meant by track record. if it was about resolving questions, calibration graph (on that it says: track record), or if it was something else entirely.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/soldiers-nigers-presidential-guard-blockade-presidents-office-security-sources-2023-07-26/

Niger soldiers say President Bazoum’s government has been removed

Niger President Mohamed Bazoum has been removed from power, according to a group of soldiers who appeared on the West African nation’s national television late on Wednesday, hours after the president was held in the presidential palace.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

I don't think this resolves the market right now, because of the uncertainty, but I would be surprised if it doesn't resolve in the next few days.

https://www.ft.com/content/0543a8f0-f8f3-4cc6-a38c-c504df81dc5d
https://aje.io/3s60su?update=2290980

Doesn't look good for the government. The army supports the coup.

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@AlexbGoode The army support basically resolves this YES. The president has been removed and the majority party headquarters attacked. How long should I leave this open you think?

@BTE this market is always slightly subjective. But there is no rush. Wait a few days to see what's going on

The president of Niger is currently being held by captive by leaders of a military coup. It appears to have been on going for the last 10 hours with the plotters having the upper hand. https://www.npr.org/2023/07/26/1190189843/nigers-president-has-been-detained-prompting-fears-of-another-coup

Niger’s president has been detained, prompting fears of another coup

The president of Niger has been detained in his residence by his personal guards - prompting fears of another attempted coup in an unstable region of West Africa.

I think "involuntary" is the wrong word to use here. It makes it sound like the change needs to happen because of some unavoidable and unplanned natural event, such as a dictator having a stroke, or all members of parliament spontaneously bursting into flame or a meteor hitting Washington DC.

In the case of a military coup, it's not right to describe the change as "involuntary" someone clearly wanted things to change and took concrete, purposeful actions to make it happen.

@Odoacre It is "involuntarily dissolved" or "overthrown". Not sure if my grammar holds up, but the goal is that the involuntarily only applies to the dissolved.

@AaronKreider "overthrown or involuntarily dissolved" loses the ambiguity

@JiSK You should get a job at Polymarket writing rules! (They need someone better)