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Does this only apply to planet Earth, or are other planets included?

Can somebody tell me why this is so high?

@JonnyBairstow Countries dissolve government all the time. Coups and elections.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/11/europe/nicola-sturgeon-snp-arrested-gbr-intl/index.html

Scotland’s former leader Nicola Sturgeon arrested amid crisis engulfing nation’s ruling party | CNN

Scotland’s former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has been arrested as part of the police investigation into the finances of the Scottish National Party (SNP), the most high-profile SNP official yet to be questioned in the probe.

[Removed: Never meant to comment here]

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230608-114711/

Japanese Politicians Brace for a Snap Election as Speculation About Lower House Dissolution Mounts

Politicians are bracing themselves for the possibility of a snap election, with dissolution of the House of Representatives on the lips of lawmakers in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito coalition in the run-up to the close of the current Diet session on June 21.

Questions;

1. What counts as a country? (referring to my comments here below about Abkhazia)

2. Does a party not making majority, refusing to form a coalition, and then dissolving parliament for new elections qualify as "involuntary" for the purposes of this market?

@Gen Abkhazia is not a country, as you pointed out earlier, so would not count. I shouldn’t have posted that article here. And for 2 no, that situation is normal for parliamentary systems.

That said, isn’t it nuts how often governments just fall apart? This market is so much fun!!

Why didn’t we get showcased this month? @Austin @ManifoldMarkets

🙏Lithuania parliament rejects election plan, government may resign (msn.com)🙏
is this even a possibility or is it just posturing?

@higherLEVELING Very interesting. What were they expensing I wonder??

Is something like this sufficient for resolution? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/03/spain-26-june-election-king-dissolves-parliament

Spain set for 26 June election after king dissolves parliament

King Felipe VI signs decree for new vote after December election left no party able to form a government

@Ramble It might have in 2016 when it happened! 😂 😂

@Ramble Isn't the dissolution of a parliament a totally normal procedure in a constitutional monarchy? It's not totally clear, but I don't think that's what the creator intended. He refers to dissolution/re-election "due to political upheaval," which sort of implies unrest or something extra-legal.

@akrasiac It is, which is why it only counts for this market if it happens, as you say, unexpectedly or under a loss of confidence vote or something like that. Last month this market resolves positively when Ecuador’s president dissolved government using the unprecedented “cross death”.

@akrasiac This market is mostly about the involuntary failure of a government, not one that dissolves voluntarily. For example, Nixon resigning would resolve NO. But impeachment followed by conviction and removal from office would resolve YES. Make sense?

@BTE IIRC it was agreed in the Ecuador market that impeachment alone, within the confines of constitutional procedures, does not count as dissolution.

@xyz Correct. I am not disputing that.

@xyz Trump would have resolved NO

@BTE But also impeachment with conviction would not resolve YES, because it is still within the confines of proscribed constitutional procedures.

@xyz But it is adversarial. As it typically requires defection from individuals party. This is very rare (tiny fraction of all impeachment led to removal) so certainly meets the extraordinary circumstances criterion. Normal order is for the impeached to be acquitted. Non-disruptive removal is resignation.

@xyz Cross death was an unused constitutional amendment remember

@xyz I will try to improve wording of description. What I want to gauge is political volatility. I thought about separate markets for different continent and might still try that.