I am going to run this market every month from now on.
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before July 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.
The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before July 1.
The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before July 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
See last month's iteration of this market below for detailed conversation about many different scenarios and how they would resolve. Please propose any hypotheticals for clarification in the conclusion, but ground them in a reference to a real world event related to the potential resolution of this market and not things like "what if the AI takes over the government". This market has proven to produce fun and engaging conversations about political volatility and government stability. Please be kind to each other!
Related questions
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[Removed: Never meant to comment here]
Questions;
What counts as a country? (referring to my comments here below about Abkhazia)
Does a party not making majority, refusing to form a coalition, and then dissolving parliament for new elections qualify as "involuntary" for the purposes of this market?
@Gen Abkhazia is not a country, as you pointed out earlier, so would not count. I shouldn’t have posted that article here. And for 2 no, that situation is normal for parliamentary systems.
That said, isn’t it nuts how often governments just fall apart? This market is so much fun!!
Why didn’t we get showcased this month? @Austin @ManifoldMarkets
🙏Lithuania parliament rejects election plan, government may resign (msn.com)🙏
is this even a possibility or is it just posturing?
Is something like this sufficient for resolution? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/03/spain-26-june-election-king-dissolves-parliament
@Ramble Isn't the dissolution of a parliament a totally normal procedure in a constitutional monarchy? It's not totally clear, but I don't think that's what the creator intended. He refers to dissolution/re-election "due to political upheaval," which sort of implies unrest or something extra-legal.
@akrasiac It is, which is why it only counts for this market if it happens, as you say, unexpectedly or under a loss of confidence vote or something like that. Last month this market resolves positively when Ecuador’s president dissolved government using the unprecedented “cross death”.
@akrasiac This market is mostly about the involuntary failure of a government, not one that dissolves voluntarily. For example, Nixon resigning would resolve NO. But impeachment followed by conviction and removal from office would resolve YES. Make sense?
@BTE IIRC it was agreed in the Ecuador market that impeachment alone, within the confines of constitutional procedures, does not count as dissolution.
@BTE But also impeachment with conviction would not resolve YES, because it is still within the confines of proscribed constitutional procedures.
@xyz But it is adversarial. As it typically requires defection from individuals party. This is very rare (tiny fraction of all impeachment led to removal) so certainly meets the extraordinary circumstances criterion. Normal order is for the impeached to be acquitted. Non-disruptive removal is resignation.
@xyz I will try to improve wording of description. What I want to gauge is political volatility. I thought about separate markets for different continent and might still try that.