There are reports that the Kremlin has ordered tens of thousands to evacuate the rapid flood zone around the Kakhovka dam in advance of intentionally blowing it up. Resolves YES if the dam fails by the end of 2022 by any means.
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@brp LMAO. I can't believe I missed it too. I swear I remember catching it while writing the question but clearly not because it is in the description too.
Related press report: Reuters reports on Russian claims of expected Ukrainian damage to the dam. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/grain-ships-sail-ukraine-ports-russian-missiles-knock-out-power-across-country-2022-10-31/
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces have not yet laid enough explosives to fully destroy the HPP Dam as of October 24.[27] Budanov observed that the Russians have prepared parts of the dam for limited explosions that would not unleash the full force of the reservoir’s waters. The Russians may seek to damage the top portion of the dam, including the road that runs across it, to prevent the Ukrainians from following after retreating Russian forces if and when the Russians abandon the western bank of the Dnipro River.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-24
If that happens, how would it resolve?
@jack That is interesting but I don’t know how they could make the determination that blowing just the top wouldn’t cause the entire dam to fail eventually. This reasoning also doesn’t explain why the Russians have been evacuating all civilians from the west bank of the Dnipro too.
Since the question references the hydroelectric power generated by the dam, as long as it is still providing electricity I will resolve this NO. If the power station is taken offline then it is YES. Not necessary to blow the entire dam.
