Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

• "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans). The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.

• To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).

• Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.

• If no credible, verified evidence of new physical structural damage to the bridge structure is reported by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.

Background

The Crimean Bridge, also known as the Kerch Strait Bridge, is a critical 19-kilometer (12-mile) road and rail link connecting Russia's Krasnodar region with the Crimean Peninsula. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, it has served as a vital military logistics artery and a symbolic target for Ukrainian forces. The bridge sustained major structural damage in previous high-profile attacks in October 2022 and July 2023, and its foundations were struck in June 2025.

In mid-2026, Ukraine intensified its "middle strike" campaign, focusing on isolating the peninsula by targeting critical alternative transport links, ferry terminals, fuel depots, and air defense systems on both sides of the strait. While these strikes have frequently triggered temporary precautionary closures of the bridge, the physical bridge structure itself has remained heavily protected. This market asks whether the main structural spans of the bridge will be physically damaged by the end of 2026.