Will the Chinese define “minimum deterrent posture” for its nuclear forces by the end of 2024?
8
70Ṁ184Jan 1
17%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
39% chance
In what year will the Chinese nuclear arsenal reach parity with the US and Russians?
Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030?
61% chance
Will China bomb any country by the end of 2026?
16% chance
[Metaculus] Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before...interference with Taiwan?
25% chance
Will China establish a new military base in another country by 2027?
76% chance
Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?
32% chance