Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024?
47
177
1k
2025
14%
chance

Including tests and accidents. Multiple >1.

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Closely related market on one or more detonations: https://manifold.markets/Pykess/will-a-nuclear-warhead-be-detonated?r=UHlrZXNz

I made that market before I saw this one.