Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
77
1kṀ24k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
North Korea openly tests a delivery system
Russia explicitly threatens nuclear attack

Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.

Will resolve YES if:

  • Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.

  • Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a warhead may have been secretly detonated. In this case market will resolve once relevant authorities come to a concrete conclusion.

Will resolve NO otherwise.

I will not participate in this market.

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