
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
77
1kṀ24kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.
Will resolve YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.
Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a warhead may have been secretly detonated. In this case market will resolve once relevant authorities come to a concrete conclusion.
Will resolve NO otherwise.
I will not participate in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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