Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?

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44

Ṁ62k

Jan 1

1.9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.

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The ancient conflict between Nothing Ever Happens and Sometimes Things Happen continues

sold Ṁ18 YES

@MalachiteEagle Apparently this one was 10km deep? Don't think that figures for a weapons test...

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 10% order

@MalachiteEagle

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-do-so-many-earthquakes-occur-a-depth-10km

bought Ṁ200 YES

See https://twitter.com/AnalyticaCamil1/status/1842797570671743070

Also https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1843116032610996322

Related: https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-3865ab28bffd

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