Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?

Plus

46

Ṁ62k

Jan 1

2%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

The ancient conflict between Nothing Ever Happens and Sometimes Things Happen continues

sold Ṁ18 YES

@MalachiteEagle Apparently this one was 10km deep? Don't think that figures for a weapons test...

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 10% order

@MalachiteEagle

https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/why-do-so-many-earthquakes-occur-a-depth-10km

bought Ṁ200 YES

See https://twitter.com/AnalyticaCamil1/status/1842797570671743070

Also https://twitter.com/eigenrobot/status/1843116032610996322

Related: https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-3865ab28bffd

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?

Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?

Will Iran announce it is a nuclear state by end of 2024?

Will Israel strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz by the end of 2024.

Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will Israel test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)

Will Iran declare that they are a nuclear power by the end of 2024?

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2040?

Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Will Iran announce it is a nuclear state by end of 2024?

Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before 2026?

Will Israel strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz by the end of 2024.

Will Israel test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules