Will gang boss Barbeque be the de facto leader of Haiti by the end of 2024?
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here is a similar one for comparison /strutheo/will-jimmy-barbecue-cherizier-occup

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What would need to change in your head for him to be the de facto leader? He clearly has some amount of power right now, but doesn't control (for example) taxation or have a monopoly on violence.

Is the criteria simply "the guy who seems to be the most powerful", or is there some amount of control he has to have?