If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028
4
174Ṁ372028
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Conditional market. If Kenya does not lead a military intervention by 2026 this will resolve N/A
Sister market:
Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for this market, the distinction between a 'military intervention' by Kenya and 'sending policemen' is not meaningful. The current Kenyan intervention (e.g., related to sending policemen) will count as a 'military intervention'.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If the US leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028?
68% chance
Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will Haiti hold an election before the end of 2026?
57% chance
When will the next Haitian general election occur?
Will South Africa have another presidential election before 2029?
32% chance
Will the U.S. have a free and fair presidential election in 2028?
65% chance
Will Hillary Clinton be elected President in 2028?
2% chance
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
56% chance
There will be a US presidential election in 2028.
97% chance
Will Kamala Harris become President before February 2029?
8% chance