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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/27/azerbaijan-close-to-peace-agreement-with-armenia-officials-say

January?

Related question, 2030: https://manifold.markets/JuJumper/will-armenia-and-azerbaijan-sign-pe-49a598e01e7d

https://nitter.net/onewmphoto/status/1735235255953461430#m

Reports now mention a deal potentially finalized in January. If Aliyev is smart, he could get re-elected on Feb 7th and then use this as a kind of referendum on the deal and sign it in February. (That's the best case scenario, worst case = deal postponed forever...)

https://nitter.net/onewmphoto/status/1734874243119137273#m

Exchange of prisoners today?

I'm hopeful for a peace deal "soon" (before COP29 in Nov 2024 at least, or even before the early Azerbaijani snap election on Feb 7), but there are only a few days left for this question to resolve "yes"...

@adssx Exchange done: https://nitter.net/onewmphoto/status/1734911605303836994#m

More and more reports about a potential deal before Dec 31st: https://nitter.net/onewmphoto/status/1734210705912418440#m

Seems unlikely to me but Aliyev called surprise snap elections on Feb 7. It may be to act as an unofficial referendum on the peace deal... Rumors claim Pashinyan may do the same thing...

@adssx I wish. With Nagorno-Karabach conceded, and the population transferred, the big barrier to peace has been removed. Not the best conclusion, but it might turn out to be a surprisingly good one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67655940.amp

"In a joint statement released on Thursday night, the two countries said they saw a "historical chance" for "long-awaited peace".

Both countries said they hoped to sign a peace treaty by the end of the year."

https://jamestown.org/program/armenia-and-azerbaijan-discussing-a-swap-of-exclaves

Some progress towards peace...

https://twitter.com/Khkonul/status/1712030760943649227#m

https://twitter.com/onewmphoto/status/1712012808924086409#m

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Armenia parliament speaker not ruling out signing of peace treaty with Azerbaijan in Granada: https://news.am/eng/news/783039.html

(Meeting of the European Political Community on 5 October 2023 in Granada, Spain)

Armenia parliament speaker not ruling out signing of peace treaty with Azerbaijan in Granada

“Personally, I think that we are very close and have a historic opportunity to sign a peace treaty,” Alen Simonyan said…

@adssx Things are heating up!

How can there be a peace agreement without a war?

@roma Because there wasn't a definitve one after the 2020 war, and there are many issues to be resolved. Various countries have worked on brokering a peace deal.

Any comprehensive deal between Baku and Yerevan about security issues would count to resolve this question as yes.

I don't count the current Nagorno-Karabakh operation as a war with Armenia, as both sides have denied it and clashes are occurring in internationally recognized azeri territory

So, NO is a neither a peace agreement, nor a war?

@a2bb Correct