Will there be either a peace agreement or a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan before 2024?
resolved Jan 1

Ci sarà una guerra o un trattato di pace tra Armenia e Azerbaijan prima del 2024?

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bought Ṁ10 of NO


Reports now mention a deal potentially finalized in January. If Aliyev is smart, he could get re-elected on Feb 7th and then use this as a kind of referendum on the deal and sign it in February. (That's the best case scenario, worst case = deal postponed forever...)

predicted YES


Exchange of prisoners today?

I'm hopeful for a peace deal "soon" (before COP29 in Nov 2024 at least, or even before the early Azerbaijani snap election on Feb 7), but there are only a few days left for this question to resolve "yes"...

predicted YES

More and more reports about a potential deal before Dec 31st: https://nitter.net/onewmphoto/status/1734210705912418440#m

Seems unlikely to me but Aliyev called surprise snap elections on Feb 7. It may be to act as an unofficial referendum on the peace deal... Rumors claim Pashinyan may do the same thing...

predicted NO

@adssx I wish. With Nagorno-Karabach conceded, and the population transferred, the big barrier to peace has been removed. Not the best conclusion, but it might turn out to be a surprisingly good one.

predicted YES


"In a joint statement released on Thursday night, the two countries said they saw a "historical chance" for "long-awaited peace".

Both countries said they hoped to sign a peace treaty by the end of the year."

predicted YES

Armenia parliament speaker not ruling out signing of peace treaty with Azerbaijan in Granada: https://news.am/eng/news/783039.html

(Meeting of the European Political Community on 5 October 2023 in Granada, Spain)

@adssx Things are heating up!

How can there be a peace agreement without a war?

@roma Because there wasn't a definitve one after the 2020 war, and there are many issues to be resolved. Various countries have worked on brokering a peace deal.

Any comprehensive deal between Baku and Yerevan about security issues would count to resolve this question as yes.

I don't count the current Nagorno-Karabakh operation as a war with Armenia, as both sides have denied it and clashes are occurring in internationally recognized azeri territory

So, NO is a neither a peace agreement, nor a war?

@a2bb Correct

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