Will Armenia and Azerbaijan sign peace treaty by the end of 2030?
11
194
2033
77%
chance

Resolves YES if such treaty is signed and (if needed) ratified before 2031 by both countries and no armed conflict happens before or for two years after that.

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One big roadblock on the path to a peace treaty has just been removed: Armenia, Azerbaijan withdraw troops from previously disputed border

Peace deal getting closer now that Armenia agreed to hand over four occupied villages: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/19/armenia-and-azerbaijan-agree-on-historic-return-of-villages

"in a March 14 speech in Baku, President Ilham Aliyev indicated that Azerbaijan and Armenia were close to a peace deal" (Armenian PM signals willingness to make territorial concessions to facilitate border deal: Are the two sides closing in on a peace settlement?, March 18)