Will 100 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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Both Pfizer and Moderna submitted updated versions of their mRNA vaccines to the FDA for emergency authorization this week. Previous versions of the mRNA vaccines took approximately 1 month to be approved from the date of final submission. This question resolves YES if combined these two updated vaccines are administered to 100 million Americans by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

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bought Ṁ400 of NO

Not even a third of the 100 million yet: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-people-onedose-pop-total

@egroj Doesn’t even appear that they distributed 100 million doses based on the numbers at that link.

predicted NO

@BTE yeah not even 40M yet. Even 0.9% is way too high

predicted NO

bought Ṁ83 of YES

So far, 2022 has had ~10 months and ~2 upheaval events: Ukraine and Omicron. Therefore, there are ~0.2 future-scrambling events per month. I'm betting that it will actually be somewhat higher than 0.2 since lots of people will update their game theory models after the congressional election results.

bought Ṁ58 of YES

It's definitely a long shot.

It's not 3%.

4.4 million as of 9/22: https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-who-rushed-to-covid-19-vaccine-hold-off-on-boosters-11663856710?st=sl29dq7x86jpx5d&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Related questions:

For reference, 25 million people is 7.5% of the US population and 100 million people is 30.2% of the US population.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Current number of people with 1 booster is 108.5 million (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) and boosters have been available for about a year. It is very unlikely that this new updated booster will go to 100 million in less than 4 months

predicted YES

There were 600m doses administered in the US in less than 2 years. mRNA vaccine technology is ~2 years old, and for unknown reasons the Omicron vaccine was not officially released until several months after January.

predicted NO

Trolling and vax-pilling aside, Base rate is south of this curve given even Fauci has resigned (vax-mania is long since over, and not clear they’ll even get approved within 30 days to hit 50mm within ~4mos)

bought Ṁ65 of NO

Unless a lot of people are getting boosters for Christmas (and don’t realize that they have immunity if they had the virus, which most everyone has. And the CFR is much lower since Omicron was engineered. And myocarditis, athletes dropping dead, strokes, facial paralysis are no longer “conspiracy theories” but legitimate risks for those capable of fighting the virus)

predicted NO

In b4 warning label is added.

Experts and fact checkers and informed people all agree the vax is a good idea if you are 50+ or have certain health conditions…

predicted YES

@Gigacasting I wish all the images were this big.

predicted YES

@Gigacasting Incidence of myocarditis is MUCH GREATER RISK for those who get the virus than those who are vaccinated. https://newsroom.heart.org/news/myocarditis-risk-significantly-higher-after-covid-19-infection-vs-after-a-covid-19-vaccine

predicted YES

@Gigacasting

predicted NO

More lives would have been saved by allowing the vax results to be released before Election Day, than have been saved by vaccinating children

Experts and fact checkers somewhat agree this was done for “reasons”

predicted NO

predicted YES

@Gigacasting Sam Harris is a dipshit. So is Hunter Biden. Neither of them are or ever have been nor ever will be president. I have noticed how little you cite your hero to support your arguments…