Will 100 million Americans get one of the updated mRNA Covid vaccines by the end of 2022?
47
578Ṁ14k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Both Pfizer and Moderna submitted updated versions of their mRNA vaccines to the FDA for emergency authorization this week. Previous versions of the mRNA vaccines took approximately 1 month to be approved from the date of final submission. This question resolves YES if combined these two updated vaccines are administered to 100 million Americans by the end of 2022. Resolves NO if not.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ291
2Ṁ204
3Ṁ201
4Ṁ172
5Ṁ124
Sort by:

@egroj Doesn’t even appear that they distributed 100 million doses based on the numbers at that link.

predictedNO

@BTE yeah not even 40M yet. Even 0.9% is way too high

predictedNO

0

So far, 2022 has had ~10 months and ~2 upheaval events: Ukraine and Omicron. Therefore, there are ~0.2 future-scrambling events per month. I'm betting that it will actually be somewhat higher than 0.2 since lots of people will update their game theory models after the congressional election results.

It's definitely a long shot.

It's not 3%.

Related questions:

For reference, 25 million people is 7.5% of the US population and 100 million people is 30.2% of the US population.

Current number of people with 1 booster is 108.5 million (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total) and boosters have been available for about a year. It is very unlikely that this new updated booster will go to 100 million in less than 4 months

predictedYES

There were 600m doses administered in the US in less than 2 years. mRNA vaccine technology is ~2 years old, and for unknown reasons the Omicron vaccine was not officially released until several months after January.

predictedNO

Trolling and vax-pilling aside, Base rate is south of this curve given even Fauci has resigned (vax-mania is long since over, and not clear they’ll even get approved within 30 days to hit 50mm within ~4mos)

Unless a lot of people are getting boosters for Christmas (and don’t realize that they have immunity if they had the virus, which most everyone has. And the CFR is much lower since Omicron was engineered. And myocarditis, athletes dropping dead, strokes, facial paralysis are no longer “conspiracy theories” but legitimate risks for those capable of fighting the virus)

predictedNO

In b4 warning label is added.

Experts and fact checkers and informed people all agree the vax is a good idea if you are 50+ or have certain health conditions…

predictedYES

@Gigacasting I wish all the images were this big.

predictedYES

@Gigacasting Incidence of myocarditis is MUCH GREATER RISK for those who get the virus than those who are vaccinated. https://newsroom.heart.org/news/myocarditis-risk-significantly-higher-after-covid-19-infection-vs-after-a-covid-19-vaccine

predictedYES
predictedNO

More lives would have been saved by allowing the vax results to be released before Election Day, than have been saved by vaccinating children

Experts and fact checkers somewhat agree this was done for “reasons”

predictedNO

Related:

predictedYES

@Gigacasting Sam Harris is a dipshit. So is Hunter Biden. Neither of them are or ever have been nor ever will be president. I have noticed how little you cite your hero to support your arguments…

predictedYES

@Gigacasting Fauci should have been fired in the 1980s after botching HIV/AIDS.

predictedNO

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy