72% on trump? Manifold seems positive about this

@NoyaV uh isn't this market kinda dumb cause it should just always be the likelihood of the most likely option?

@Riley12 Only if you think Manifold is well-calibrated.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Even then, you should just buy both markets down.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 but if you think it's not well calibrated just buy the original market... yes/no on most likely option

@Riley12 Ah, good point, I was wrong.

I guess another possibility, though, is if you think there will be more information revealed in the future. Then the chance of Manifold predicting correctly might be higher than the current highest candidate.

@Riley12 I don't necessarily disagree. I made the same market last year, then Isaac King asked me to create a 2024 version.

(I'm not sure if it was Isaac, the manifold Message I received says the user was banned and won't show their name, but I vaguely remember it being from him).

@NoyaV Isaac King isn't banned. @_deleted_ is a different account.

@NoyaV that was firstuserhere, iirc

@AlQuinn thesis for Musk with at least a 50/50 split with Trump: dude has 200M Twitter followers and is a gigachad with big rocket ships exploding and doing cartwheels and shit. Hard to say definitively but Musk may have been decisive in energizing more marginal voters and non-voters to turn out, and thereby, swing Trump to a solid win margin. I can imagine the cover showing a hydra with Trump and Musk as its heads. Musk Derangement Syndrome shares much in common with TDS so they will get great sales to deranged hate-readers.

@AlQuinn I find it hard to believe that Musk would be named twice. He was already selected in 2021.

@FabioTran We're in a Muskian decade here

@FabioTran They will do Musk hoping it makes Trump jealous.

@AlQuinn Musk is basically a Trump

You're gonna give me 100-1 odds on Harris? Sure. Time has done weirder things. Harris is without a doubt a big part of the story of 2024, even having lost.

@LukeW This.

Think of their reader base and the fact that their pick last year was Taylor Swift.

@LukeW yeah this is my thinking too. now 50-1 which is already much better

https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/who-will-become-2024-person-of-the

Different paper, similiar market

At this point:

The most likely outcome: either they give it to Trump alone or they give it to Trump + Elon (MAYBE Trump + Vance but I don't see them really caring about Vance).

The funniest potentially likely outcome: they snub trump and give it to Elon for his very busy year, forming the cracks that end up as a major rift between the two

The funniest possible outcome: they give it to Biden anyway

I just don't see how Harris isn't gonna be picked if she wins. Given, other markets say it's 50%, I have to buy this at 45% here.

@Mullet4MyV It's possible that the "person of the year" will be shared. In 2020, they picked Biden and Harris. If they do the same thing this year and pick Harris and Walz, Harris would only resolve to 50%.

The funniest possible outcome would be them doing Biden anyway, so i have no choice but to root for it

@Marnix Giving it to Harris/Biden (as opposed to 2020's Biden/Harris) would honestly make a lot of sense if she wins; she might be the star of the show, but Biden choosing to bow out of the race and let his understudy fly will be looked at as 2024's decisive turning point if the Dems eek out a narrow victory. Future leaders in Biden's position will be a lot more motivated to set aside their ambitions if we set a precedent of rewarding them for it, instead of casting them aside afterwards.

Can anyone give me the rundown on the likelihood of Time snubbing both Harris and Trump? Is the US election simply too big to ignore?

@vitamind If Kamala gets elected she's a lock; anyone who went from a largely overlooked and sidelined VP to the president-elect in ~4 months would have a strong case for POTY, but snubbing the USA's first female president is unthinkable.

Trump could get snubbed, since people would argue that it's a retread of his 2016 win, and his influence on American politics is not so new and shocking anymore. But he's still pretty likely to make POTY if he's elected, especially with the assassination attempts. If TIME picks neither, it will probably be for a set of people, e.g. "The Victims of War."

@Jonagold oh yeah first female president, forgot that would be the case, I think you're probably spot on here - thanks.

@vitamind Since 1932 there's been 4 snubbed presidents-elect (Eisenhower, JFK, Nixon, and Bush Sr.), but all were chosen PotY in other non-election years. On the other hand, the only reelected incumbents who were chosen PotY were Nixon (shared), G.W. Bush, and Obama.

You might infer some special circumstances from the list of US election winners since 1932, whether the president-elect or reelected incumbent was chosen Y/N (actual TPotY or other notes). I've marked the exception years mentioned above with a [P] for snubbed presidents-elect and [R] for chosen reelected incumbents:

1932 FDR Y (repeated in non-election year '34)

1936 N (Wallis Simpson)

1940 N (Churchill, but FDR chosen a third time the following year)

1944 N (Eisenhower)

1948 Truman Y (already chosen in '45)

[P] 1952 Eisenhower N (Elizabeth II accession was obvious pick, and Ike already chosen in '44)

1956 N ("The Hungarian freedom fighter" chosen, but Ike repeated in '59)

[P] 1960 JFK N (somehow "US Scientists" chosen but JFK got it the following year)

1964 LBJ Y (and repeated in '67 but was a negative mark)

[P] 1968 Nixon N ("The Apollo 8 astronauts" chosen, later Nixon in '71 and his '72 reelection)

[R] 1972 Y (shared PotY with Kissinger)

1976 Carter Y

1980 Reagan Y (then repeated in '83 shared with Andropov posthumously)

1984 N (Peter Ueberroth got it for that year's LA Summer Olympics, weird imo)

[P] 1988 Bush Sr. N ("The endangered Earth" chosen then Bush got it in '90 for the Gulf War)

1992 Clinton Y (repeated in '98 shared with Ken Starr)

1996 N (David Ho for HIV cure)

2000 Dubya Y

[R] 2004 Y

2008 Obama Y

[R] 2012 Y

2016 Trump Y

2020 Biden Y (shared with Kamala)

Presidents-elect 10/14 71.4% (7/8 87.5% since '76 Carter)

Reelected incumbents 3/9 33.3% (though last 2/2)

Edit to add sources: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States