
People are also trading
Just realised the creator is banned and thus we won't be getting any clarification; do @traders want to come to a consensus on the best interpretation?
@Nat I haven't traded but I'm not sure there's an objective measure of SpaceX's value you could get. Dunno about openAI. I would include Starlink as it's part of SpaceX at the time of market creation.
@Mqrius @Nat
https://www.ft.com/content/c4a7eb14-1f3e-4b14-8e04-abe52c317dd6
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/03/openai-boosts-size-of-secondary-share-sale-to-10point3-billion.html
The frequency of these sorts of deals can be low, there may not be any for a year or more for one or both of them. Should we use
1. Latest deal valuation. (Prevents long delay before resolving.)
2 Use nearest date to the year end and use that valuation.
3. Assume constant change in valuation between dates of first deals before and after year end. (could be a long wait for resolution)
4. If there are no more deals perhaps $400B and $500B in links above are sufficiently different that we use those but if there are upcoming deals or it gets closer we use method 3 above?
5 Something else.
Any thoughts @traders wish to share?
@ChristopherRandles I know people don't really like N/A resolutions but the vagueness of this is exactly why I didn't bet, and why I think the market can't be resolved as is. If both companies were publicly traded it would be a different story, as that would be a reasonable Schelling interpretation. But lacking that I wouldn't think anything is solid enough to resolve on.
That's all I have to contribute tbh, I still have no stake so the traders can decide.