Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of 2028? | Manifold

Bayes Rates: What is your personal prior for a permanent ceasefire in Ukraine by the end of 2028?

56

2029

<1%

1-5%

5-10%

10-25%

>25%

Market context

Ukraine-Russia war

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Hmmm... Am I >75% sure that the war in Ukraine will last at least until 2029?

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