Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is in effect on December 31, 2027. A ceasefire is defined as a cessation of active hostilities with a formal agreement or understanding between the parties that has been publicly announced and is being observed. The ceasefire must be in place for at least 48 consecutive hours by the end of 2027 to count.

Resolution will be determined by:

• Official statements from the Ukrainian government, Russian government, or credible international organizations (UN, OSCE, etc.)

• Major news sources reporting the ceasefire status as of December 31, 2027

• Absence of significant military operations during the 48-hour period preceding the resolution date

If the ceasefire breaks down before December 31, 2027, the market resolves NO. If no ceasefire has been established by the end of 2027, the market resolves NO.

Background

Ukraine has reached an agreement with Western partners on a ceasefire framework involving trilateral talks between the United States, Russia, and Ukraine. A "Coalition of the Willing" meeting in Paris on January 6, 2026, involving 35 countries, resulted in the Paris Declaration on Security Guarantees for Ukraine following a ceasefire, providing for ceasefire monitoring, long-term military and financial support, and coordinated responses to renewed aggression.

Russia has insisted there can be no ceasefire until a comprehensive settlement is agreed. Russia is maintaining a maximalist position and believes it can sustain the war into 2027. Russia currently occupies 20 percent of Ukraine's territory.

Considerations

A fragile ceasefire is considered more likely than a lasting peace, with a frozen conflict being a possible outcome. The fundamental problem is alignment between Ukraine and Russia, not alignment between Ukraine, Europe, and the United States. The most significant unresolved issue is "the territorial question," referring to Russian demands that Ukraine give up its eastern Donbas region.

This description was generated by AI.