Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Democratic candidate Sherrod Brown receives a higher number of certified votes in Mahoning County, Ohio than any other candidate in the Ohio U.S. Senate special election scheduled for November 3, 2026. If he does not receive the highest number of votes in the county, this market will resolve to NO.

The primary source of truth for county-level certified election results will be the official results published by the Mahoning County Board of Elections or the Ohio Secretary of State.

If the election is delayed, the market will resolve based on the eventual certified results for the rescheduled election. If Sherrod Brown is not on the ballot for the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Following his defeat in the November 2024 general election, former three-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is running in the November 3, 2026 special Senate election in Ohio. He is challenging Republican incumbent Jon Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to fill the vacancy left by Vice President J.D. Vance.

Mahoning County, anchored by Youngstown, was once a reliable Democratic stronghold. However, it has increasingly voted Republican in recent presidential and statewide contests. In his 2024 reelection bid, Sherrod Brown narrowly lost Mahoning County to Republican Bernie Moreno by a margin of 48.47% to 48.27% (a difference of just 220 votes out of over 111,000 cast). The 2026 special election represents another high-stakes test of whether Brown can win back support in this critical county.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.