Will Amy Acton outperform Sherrod Brown in 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if Amy Acton’s percentage point margin of victory in the 2026 Ohio Governor’s election is strictly greater than Sherrod Browns percentage point margin of victory in the 2026 Ohio Senate election.

If Amy Acton wins and Sherrod Brown loses, resolves YES.

if both candidates lose, resolves YES if Amy Acton’s percentage point losing margin is smaller than Sherrod Brown’s

Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolves according to Ohio Secretary of State certified results, although can be resolved early if the result is clear and the Associated Press has projected a winner.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 62% chance (2 traders, as of Oct 21, 2026).

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