By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Question

Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will resolve based on broad 2050 consensus (scientists, doctors, media) on whether there is a "cure for aging."

+20 years life expectancy alone does not count; must materially change the aging process itself.

Animal/theoretical-only results don't qualify; requires convincing human evidence (either wide use or a small number of undeniable cases).

If longevity increases but it's debated whether aging is "cured," resolution follows expert/public consensus.

Aim is to reflect common understanding in 2050, not technicalities.

Update 2025-09-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If public/media narratives diverge from science, resolution will lean toward the scientific/medical side.

If scientists/doctors are split, resolution will follow the balance of credible expert views.

Aim is to reflect a reasonable read of the world in 2050, not technicalities.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (268 traders, as of Aug 9, 2026).