Which SCOTUS justices will sign an opinion that Trump is barred from running by the insurrection/rebellion clause?
➕
Plus
46
Ṁ11k
resolved Mar 10
Resolved
NO
Elena Kagan
Resolved
NO
Any other SCOTUS justice
Resolved
NO
Sonia Sotomayor
Resolved
NO
Ketanji Jackson
Resolved
NO
John Roberts
Resolved
NO
Brett Kavanaugh
Resolved
NO
Neil Gorsuch
Resolved
NO
Samuel Alito
Resolved
NO
Amy Coney Barrett
Resolved
NO
Clarence Thomas

Related to the 2024 presidential election or the related preceding primaries.

Resolves positive for every judge who signs a ruling an opinion that Trump can not run or serve as president because of the 14th Amendment. Does not resolve positively if the ruling opinion against Trump's eligibility is for other reasons.

"Sign a ruling" "Signs an opinion" means to write a judgment or formally concur with it. If a judge 'concurs in part, dissents in part' with an opinion, I will look for indications such as other concurrences or other statements the judge makes that indicates their overall opinion about Trump's eligibility. If a judge abstains or recuses themselves or otherwise stays neutral, the market will resolve negatively on them because they have not signed a ruling that Trump is not eligible to run.

Resolves when a ruling is made. If a SCOTUS ruling is not made before a president is sworn into office in 2025, the market on all justices will resolve negatively.

"Any other SCOTUS justice" would apply to any other justice appointed to the court after the creation of this market.

For clarity this market does not depend on the overall ruling, only the opinions expressed by each individual justice.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

I listened to the whole oral argument

If the justice signed on saying he would be disqualified because of the 14th, but that judgment failed to reach a majority in the Court, how would that resolve?

@BrendanKent I'm worried I am misunderstanding you. This market's resolution doesn't depend on what the majority finds or what the overall court resolution is, just about whatever opinion each individual judge writes or signs or concurs with.

@BrendanKent maybe the confusion is my wording "signs a ruling". I will update that.

@B You cleared it up, thanks

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