Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, for the first cycle where the $100K cap announced in September 2025, USCIS publicly states that the H‑1B cap has been reached for both: (a) the 65,000 regular cap and (b) the 20,000 U.S. advanced‑degree exemption (master’s cap), as shown on the USCIS H‑1B Cap Season page or an official USCIS alert/news release. Example source: https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/h-1b-cap-season. If USCIS has not posted that both caps were reached by December 31, 2026, resolves NO. (uscis.gov)

• Precondition: The $100,000 H‑1B fee policy announced September 20–21, 2025 must take effect at least temporarily (nationwide) for the cycle. If it never takes effect (e.g., fully enjoined before effective date), resolves N/A. Notes/sources on the policy: Reuters, Business Insider, Al Jazeera, and legal client alert. (reuters.com)

• Evidence: The resolver will use the USCIS page(s) above. If multiple USCIS postings conflict, the most recent USCIS posting prevails. (uscis.gov)

Background

• FY2026 initial registration ran March 7–24, 2025, with a $215 registration fee and beneficiary‑centric selection (limits multiple registrations per person). Source and details: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/fy-2026-h-1b-cap-initial-registration-period-opens-on-march-7. (uscis.gov) It seems unclear if the announcement will apply to this cycle first or to the next one.

• USCIS fee rule (Jan 2024) made the $215 registration fee effective starting the March 2025 registration (FY2026). https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/stakeholder-messages/uscis-issues-final-rule-to-adjust-certain-immigration-and-naturalization-fees. (uscis.gov)

• As context on cap levels: 65,000 regular + 20,000 master’s cap (with 6,800 set aside for H‑1B1 Chile/Singapore each year from the 65,000). https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/h-1b-cap-season. (uscis.gov)

• See also:

  • https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/

  • https://x.com/PressSec/status/1969495900478488745

Considerations

• The $100,000 policy was described by the White House as a one‑time fee applying to new H‑1B petitions/applicants; legal challenges or agency guidance could narrow, suspend, or clarify its scope. Traders should monitor for injunctions. (reuters.com)

• USCIS sometimes posts that the cap has been reached well before the fiscal year ends; check the Cap Season page for the definitive status. As of now, USCIS indicates the FY2026 caps have been reached. (uscis.gov)

• Update 2026-01-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The FY2026 cap announcement from July 2025 (which occurred before the $100K fee was announced in September 2025) does not count for this market's resolution. The market will wait for the next cycle (FY2027) to determine if both caps are filled under the $100K fee regime.