This resolves true if a fee largely in line with this report goes into effect. I'm sure there will be grey area here, so I won't participate.
If there are exceptions that are rare, but >=75% of H1Bs are impacted, I'll resolve yes. I'd trust a combination of official estimates and mainstream reports to decide if 75% is met. I'd define this based on 75% of the H1B load prior to the rule not after, but if only post rule data is available I'll trust that. This means if, for example, all SWEs suddenly get fees and their use drops to 0, I'd count the fraction from before the rule.
Some calculation adding up the total cost of the application doesn't count. There has to be an explicit 100k fee, not something like "50k fee + lawyer costs usually adds up to 100k".
Somewhat arbitrarily I'd like the policy to be in effect for at least a month. If a court intervenes in less than a month, I'll wait until it actually goes into effect.
If a new visa is created with this fee AND H1B is limited by more than 75% I'll resolve yes.
Update 2025-09-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The 75% impact threshold will be evaluated based on new H-1Bs, not existing H-1B holders already in the U.S.
1,000Here's the order: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/
my not lawyer understanding of this suggest it passes most of the conditions as written and so the only test will be if it ends up applying to >75% of H1Bs and if it is actually implemented for a whole month.
> (c) The restriction imposed pursuant to subsections (a) and (b) of this section shall not apply to any individual alien, all aliens working for a company, or all aliens working in an industry, if the Secretary of Homeland Security determines, in the Secretary’s discretion, that the hiring of such aliens to be employed as H-1B specialty occupation workers is in the national interest and does not pose a threat to the security or welfare of the United States.
@BenM Well the tricky thing is it appears to be based on entry to the country. So it may affect less than 75% of h1bs if folks who are already in don't leave? Are you resolving based on affecting 75% of new h1bs or existing?