US issues 85k new H-1B visas in FY2027? (Conditional on 100k fee implementation)

Question

Resolution criteria

Precondition: This market only resolves if a $100,000 fee for new H‑1B petitions is in force during FY2026/2027 pursuant to the Sep 19, 2025 presidential proclamation and associated federal implementation (i.e., White House/USCIS guidance indicating the fee applies to petitions filed on/after Sep 21, 2025). If the fee is fully enjoined nationwide and never takes effect, resolve N/A.

Outcome: Conditional on the above, resolve YES if USCIS states it “has received enough petitions to reach” both the FY2027 H‑1B 65,000 regular cap and the 20,000 U.S. advanced degree exemption (total 85,000). This notice will be sourced from their website (uscis.gov)

Note: The FY2026 cap was filled with the petitions made during FY2025. Throughout FY2026, USCIS will receive applications for FY2027, and that is the cap that matters for this market.

Note: if the fee is removed during FY2027 for FY2028 applicants, this market would still resolve.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 49% chance (3 traders, as of Jul 24, 2026).