Mearsheimer mentions 2 conditions/criteria.
1. Russia does not develop the capability to minimize the effects of the drone strikes.
2. Russia does not win militarily on the battlefield.
Mearsheimer did not make a timeline but it sounds on his prediction like this will be next step for the Russians so I think 1 year is a generous amount of time to give the prediction.
The question resolves to "Yes" if both criteria is fulfilled and Russia does attack European targets outside of Ukraine and Russia. This must happen within a year of the prediction being published to youtube.
The question resolve to "No" if both criteria are fulfilled one year after the prediction was published to youtube and Russia has not intentionally attacked a target in Europe that is not Ukraine or Russia. If the war ends during this period in another way than the Ukrainian militiary being defeated then the bet will also resolve to "No".
The question resolves to N/A if either of the criteria become unfulfilled.
In case either of the criteria are not fulfilled the question will resolve as NA.
I expect condition 2 to be fairly clear based on whether the war is still ongoing.
Condition 1 is more difficult.
In the following article they claim that Russian capability to produce and export oil have been reduced by 40%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/09/ukraine-drone-strikes-russia-nato.html
In order for criteria 2 to be invalidated the number would have to be >5%, plausible to low to calculate. But the drone strikes could be effective in other ways. I will mostly look at whether the drone strikes having an effect far from the border according to media. I think it will be a lot of writting in the media in case the drones are being neutralized successfully and we should expect to see reductions in investments in long range drone strikes if criteria 2 is invalidated.
1,000