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The Gaza conflict has the potential to become a catalyst for a much larger regional crisis, but whether it does depends on how key actors respond. PNP Jobs Hiring and Recruitment Process Escalation involving neighboring countries, armed groups, or major powers such as the United States and Iran could significantly widen the conflict, while disruptions to energy supplies and global trade routes could have worldwide economic consequences. However, most governments have strong incentives to avoid a full-scale regional or global war because of the enormous human and economic costs, making diplomatic efforts and containment more likely than unchecked escalation.

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📢Resolved to NO

No Definitive Proof It Has Expanded Beyond The Scope Of The Question.

A. The resolution date should be pushed back.
B. If next year there is a full war between Lebanon and Israel, this resolves yes, right? Because people might argue it "would have happened anyway" (for context, there are still about 200k displaced Israeli's on the border with Lebanon, and the conflict is still slowly ramping up).

@colorednoise

I disagree. We have been betting keeping the current end date in mind.

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@AviSchwartz

For now, we don't really have much data about this one, but the conflict between countries or inside a country has become extremely sharp.

I realized "something bigger" could be understood in two opposite ways:

• International conference with USA, Egipt, Saudis etc. which will try to sort out Gaza problem.

• International conflict.

Does both count here?

@ArekStryjski Bigger in terms of conflict

How big does 'bigger' have to be to count for resolution? Is Lebanese involvement enough to resolve YES? Is direct Iranian involvement enough?

@mariopasquato Direct war with another country

@AviS so this question: https://manifold.markets/NADZOR/will-hezbollah-directly-engage-in-c

should be a lower bound?

Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?

63% chance. "Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count. Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.)

@mariopasquato Hezbollah is a proxy, not a country.

@AviS what would constitute war with Lebanon in your definition?

Probably not till the end of 2023.