Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, an official decree, legislative resolution, or regulatory decision is enacted by an authorized Ukrainian government body—specifically the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament), the President of Ukraine, or the Central Election Commission (CEC)—that officially schedules and sets a specific calendar date (or dates) for a nationwide presidential or parliamentary election.

The scheduled date of the voting itself may occur in 2027 or later, provided that the formal legal act of calling/scheduling the election and assigning it a calendar date is completed and announced before January 1, 2027.

Notes and Edge Cases:

• Postponements: If an election is officially scheduled before the deadline but is subsequently postponed, rescheduled, or canceled after December 31, 2026, this market still resolves to YES (as the act of calling the election occurred within the timeframe).

• Conditional/Vague Statements: General statements of intent, political promises, or tentative timelines (e.g., "elections will occur 90 days after a ceasefire") do not suffice to resolve YES unless a specific calendar date is officially decreed or legislated by the government.

• Scope: This market applies only to nationwide presidential or parliamentary elections. Local, regional, or municipal elections do not qualify.

• Verification: Resolving sources will include official government portals such as the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine, or major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News).

Background

Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Ukraine declared martial law, which has been periodically extended by the Verkhovna Rada. Under Ukraine's current legal framework, including the Constitution and the Electoral Code, national elections are legally prohibited while martial law remains in force.

As a result, the parliamentary elections (originally scheduled for October 2023) and the presidential election (originally scheduled for March/April 2024, marking the end of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s five-year term) have been postponed indefinitely. While constitutional provisions maintain the legitimacy and continuity of the incumbent government until a successor is elected, international actors have frequently pressured Ukraine to establish a roadmap for democratic elections. In late 2025, President Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine could prepare and hold elections within 60 to 90 days once necessary security guarantees and legal adjustments (such as a ceasefire) are established. This market monitors whether Ukraine's leadership will formally call for a national vote before 2027.

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