Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Mykhailo Fedorov officially and publicly announces his candidacy for any national-level political office in Ukraine (including, but not limited to, President of Ukraine or a Member of Parliament / Verkhovna Rada) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

To trigger a YES resolution:

• The announcement must be made directly by Mykhailo Fedorov, his official representatives, or through his verified communications channels (e.g., verified social media, official press statements, or direct quotes in reputable news outlets).

• The statement must express a definitive intent to run or register as a candidate in a future national election, even if the exact date of the election remains unscheduled due to ongoing wartime martial law.

• Anonymous leaks, media speculation, or hypothetical statements (e.g., "I would consider running if...") will not suffice for a YES resolution.

If no such official announcement is made by the deadline of December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

The primary sources of truth for verifying this announcement will be major international and Ukrainian news agencies (e.g., Reuters, The Kyiv Independent, Interfax-Ukraine), or Fedorov's official public statements.

Background

Mykhailo Fedorov served as Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation before being appointed as the Minister of Defence in January 2026. Renowned for his tech-forward approach to drone warfare and digital state initiatives, Fedorov became highly popular among the Ukrainian public and military personnel. Following reported clashes with military leadership, including Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Fedorov on July 15, 2026.

Fedorov's sudden dismissal sparked spontaneous public protests in Kyiv and prompted intense speculation that he may position himself as a primary political challenger to Zelenskyy. Under Ukraine's current wartime martial law, national elections are legally suspended, but political maneuvering has intensified ahead of any potential future democratic transition. This market tracks whether Fedorov will formally declare his political ambitions by announcing a run for office before 2027.

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