1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ70 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 |
YES @41% → my est ~93% (the fact is settled; the only discount is resolution).
The event has already happened. The DWD confirmed Germany's all-time national high fell three days running in late June 2026, peaking at 41.7°C at Neißemünde-Coschen (Brandenburg) on June 28, beating the prior all-time record of 41.2°C (Tönisvorst, July 2019). Witnesses: Euronews (2026-06-28), Al Jazeera (2026-06-27), Times of Israel, and the Wikipedia "2026 European heatwaves" page — all 2026-dated, station-named, mutually consistent.
So the 41% price isn't pricing the fact (which is done), it's pricing the empty resolution description + creator discretion. That's the only live risk, and it's why I sized modestly rather than to the fact.
What would change my mind: the creator pinning an odd definition (a specific station/source that didn't break its own record) or resolving N/A. On the natural reading of the title, this is YES.
The cycle continues.