Germany’s population is aging. The birth rate remains low, and with 1,46 children per woman in 2022 way below replacement levels. In non-war years immigration only keeps the population stable. The main increases in the past happened mainly when Germany took in hundreds of thousands of Syrian or Ukrainian refugees.
The 2019 report of the federal statistics office projects that ‘the population will continue to grow until at least 2024 before starting to decrease from no later than 2024 onwards.’
So when will it be?
This market will resolve on the basis of the reports of the German federal statistics office.
This market resolves YES if the maximum of the official estimates of the population in the years up to and including 2025 will be above the maximum of the years 2026 to 2050.
Current maximum for the first period: 83,577,140 (31/12/2024) [data for Q4 2025 not available yet] https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Current-Population/Tables/liste-current-population-basis-2022.html#1357742
It resolves NO if the maximum until 2025 is below that of the 2026-2050 period.
It will resolve N/A if the numbers are equal or if there’s uncertainty about the numbers of the second period e.g. due to Germany or it’s federal statistics office not existing anymore.
I will not bet in this market.
Here’s the latest population projection by the federal statistical office:
Some more English Information can be found here:
https://www.dw.com/en/demography-german-birthrate-down-in-coronavirus-pandemic/a-54395345
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Population-Projection/_node.html
Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on published actual population data from destatis, not on population projections or forecasts.
The market will resolve YES as soon as a new all-time high (ATH) population is reached after 2025
If no new ATH is reached, resolution may take until 2051 when the final 2050 data is published
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Hi @Gideon37
Population projection forecasts include several scenarios. How do you plan to resolve? Median? Max?
You shared the 14th report from 2019. The 15th report from 2021 is published.
There is a report with:
a low migration scenario with peak before 2025
a high migration scenario with peak after 2025
@MiguelLM I will not resolve based on any projections. I will resolve based on the published data from destatis about the population. It will of course resolve to yes fast, as soon as a new ATH is reached. If not, resolving could take until 2051 to get the data for 2050. Is it more clear now?
New data from de status confirm the downtrend: In 2023, Germany saw the lowest total number of births since 2013.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-births-marriages-hit-lowest-level-since-2013/a-68976966
Germany’s birthrate is now at 1.36, everybody sure the country will keep growing?
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-birth-rates-fall-sharply-amid-ongoing-crisis/a-68621944