Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?
28
88
1k
2050
44%
chance

Germany’s population is aging. The birth rate remains low, and with 1,46 children per woman in 2022 way below replacement levels. In non-war years immigration only keeps the population stable. The main increases in the past happened mainly when Germany took in hundreds of thousands of Syrian or Ukrainian refugees.

The 2019 report of the federal statistics office projects that ‘the population will continue to grow until at least 2024 before starting to decrease from no later than 2024 onwards.’

So when will it be?

This market will resolve on the basis of the reports of the German federal statistics office.

This market resolves YES if the maximum of the official estimates of the population in the years up to and including 2025 will be above the maximum of the years 2026 to 2050.

It resolves NO if the maximum until 2025 is below that of the 2026-2050 period.

It will resolve N/A if the numbers are equal or if there’s uncertainty about the numbers of the second period e.g. due to Germany or it’s federal statistics office not existing anymore.

I will not bet in this market.

Here’s the latest population projection by the federal statistical office:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Population-Projection/Publications/Downloads-Population-Projection/germany-population-2060-5124206199004.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Some more English Information can be found here:

https://www.dw.com/en/demography-german-birthrate-down-in-coronavirus-pandemic/a-54395345

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Population-Projection/_node.html

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New data from de status confirm the downtrend: In 2023, Germany saw the lowest total number of births since 2013.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-births-marriages-hit-lowest-level-since-2013/a-68976966

Germany’s birthrate is now at 1.36, everybody sure the country will keep growing?

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-birth-rates-fall-sharply-amid-ongoing-crisis/a-68621944

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