@AustinPlatt Can be resolved now for Barnier

@AustinPlatt Gabriel Attal has offered his resignation. It's possible that after a long negotiation, the new government will select him again as their new PM. In that case, will this market simply stay open until the next elections? Or is "Gabriel Attal, but re-nominated" part of "Other"? (in which case it might be helpful to slice that out from "Other", but I didn't want to do that until asking the clarifying question).

I think the latter is a bit more clean (so the market doesn't stay open for years, what we care about is what happens next) but totally fair if the former was your intent. (E.g. this bigger market separates out "Gabriel Attal (re-nominated)" as its own option)

Indeed the intention of this market was what happens in the near future. I'm happy to add Gabriel Attal (re-nominated) as an option. In hindsight, potentially a market such as "Who will the french prime minister on 1st December 2024" (or some other arbitrary date in the near future) might've been better. Lesson learnt.

If Attal is renominated, do you have an idea on when this might happen? Is it guaranteed that someone will be re-nominated at some point? Or could Attal just stay for a long time without being explicitly re-nominated?

Hmm, I'm bad at these definitions, and don't know french politics. But for example, polymarket has a market for "new french government in july". they have a very strict requirement that it reach 10 parliamentary session days without a vote of no confidence, to make it a proper new govt. that's probably much too strict, it's fine if the newly appointed PM gets voted out. but maybe the spirit of your question is basically "when a new government has been formed, who will be its prime minister", something like that? (because yes I think people can reasonably agree it might be Attal but Attal's current standing shouldn't count).

so TLDR maybe just tie it to "when a new government has been formed"?