What feature will Manifold "unlaunch" next?
What feature will Manifold "unlaunch" next?
23
1.5kṀ1900resolved Aug 26
100%8%
Tags
9%Other
0.3%
Charity Prediction Markets
3%
Manalinks
7%
Chats in Groups
4%
Following other users
0.6%
Leaderboards
34%
Close dates on markets
2%
Comment tipping
1.9%
Initial numbers on numeric markets
18%
Free response markets v0
2%
Unique bettor market subsidy
1.2%
Choose your referrer
0.2%
Resolving markets N/A
0.7%
Long term markets
0.4%
Group chats
0.0%
Categories
0.5%
Multiple choice markets
6%
Creator trading fee
Just as important as features we launch, are the things we "unlaunch". Removing features gives us breathing room to work on new ideas, or rethink the implementation of something we thought was a good idea but in practice has been less good than anticipated.
Example of things we've unlaunched:
- Loans
- Algorithmic Feed
- Folds/Communities
- Variable market subsidies, initial probability choices
- Numeric Markets v0
Upgrades/improvements don't count for this market; roughly, the entire feature has to be missing for a while.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ160 | |
| 2 | Ṁ154 | |
| 3 | Ṁ77 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
Sort by:
Not sure what went away first? Chats in Groups? Tags? Creator trading fee?
Oh, we also have "Group chats" as an answer, not sure which one was first.
This is the 10% fee for trading against the AMM that goes to the market creator. Arguably obsoleted by the unique bettor bonus and the referral bonus.
I still think AMM liquidity providers should get a fee.
I maintain that if multichoice markets were just a bunch of independent YES/NO markets like they are on PredictIt, it would probably simplify things a lot on the backend. Also, issues where someone creates an option to the effect of "not this option or this option" make the free response markets awkward.
Austin said in general comments: 'Tentatively I'm not going to count "Categories", because those are already on the way out in place of Groups'
@MartinRandall I should have read the whole description, I was betting they'd get replaced with a new version.
I think these are filling a niche and it'd be awkward to remove them without an alternative (in which case it would be an improvement and not resolve the market). Surprised this went up to 25%.
Tentatively I'm not going to count "Categories", because those are already on the way out in place of Groups
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Which new product features will Manifold launch before June 2025?
When will Manifold shut down?(READ DESC)
8% chance
When will manifold shut down?
When will manifold go defunct? (Add answer)
Which manifold users will leave Manifold as a result of the "Big Pivot"
What will the next big community to join manifold be?
When will someone first manage to get Manifold running locally?
Will Manifold launch a new mobile app before Apr 13th?
98% chance
How will Manifold die?
How can Manifold improve?
Ṁ3,446 bounty