Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a U.S. federal law is officially enacted (either signed by the President or passed via congressional veto override) on or before December 31, 2026, that legally prohibits members of the U.S. House of Representatives and/or the U.S. Senate from buying and/or selling individual, publicly traded stocks.

To resolve the market to YES, the legislation must satisfy the following conditions:

• Enactment Date: The law must be officially enacted before January 1, 2027. The implementation or grace period for compliance (e.g., divestment deadlines) can extend beyond this date, as long as the bill is codified into law before the cutoff.

• Allowed Exemptions: A law will still qualify for a YES resolution if it permits members of Congress to invest in diversified assets (e.g., mutual funds, ETFs, index funds, treasury bills) or to utilize qualified blind trusts.

• Grandfathering/Buying Bans: Legislation that permits members to hold existing stocks but strictly prohibits the purchase of new individual stocks (as proposed in the Stop Insider Trading Act) will qualify for a YES resolution.

• Federal Law Requirement: Internal rule changes by a single chamber of Congress (e.g., a simple House or Senate resolution) that do not constitute enacted federal statute do NOT qualify.

If no such federal law is officially enacted on or before December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.

The primary source of truth will be official legislative records tracked on Congress.gov or reports from major, reputable news organizations.

Background

While the STOCK Act of 2012 established disclosure rules for congressional stock trading, critics argue that its minimal penalties ($200 fines) and lax enforcement have failed to prevent conflicts of interest. In the 119th Congress, renewed bipartisan pressure has led to the introduction of several high-profile bills aimed at establishing strict prohibitions. Key proposals include the Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks (ETHICS) Act, which bans holding or trading individual stocks, and the Stop Insider Trading Act (H.R. 7008), which focuses on banning the purchase of new individual stocks and has seen active debate and amendment attempts.

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