Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2027, any individual who served in the Trump administration or their immediate family (spouse, children, or their spouses) is formally indicted on charges of insider trading. The indictment must be publicly reported by a credible news organization or official government source. If no such indictment occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Insider trading involves buying or selling a security in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security.

Notably, former U.S. Representative Chris Collins, an early supporter of Donald Trump, was indicted and convicted for insider trading related to his role on the board of Innate Immunotherapeutics. (npr.org) However, Collins' actions were not directly tied to his service in the Trump administration.

Considerations

As of July 11, 2025, there have been no public reports of insider trading indictments involving members of the Trump administration.