Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if at least 3 countries officially enact complete bans on cryptocurrency trading before January 1, 2027. A complete ban means a country's government formally prohibits trading cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum) via law or regulation, with enforcement mechanisms in place.

Resolution will be determined by:

• Official government statements or published laws/regulations from each country's central bank or financial authority

• Widely accepted news sources (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, BBC, etc.) confirming the ban

• The ban must explicitly prohibit trading; restrictions on payments or mining alone do not qualify

Countries with existing complete trading bans as of March 2026 include China, Algeria, Bangladesh, Bolivia, Iraq, Nepal, Egypt, and Qatar. Therefore, only 3 or more new complete trading bans enacted between now and January 1, 2027 would trigger a YES resolution.

Background

The global trend in 2025 shows most countries moving toward a 'regulate, don't ban' approach rather than prohibition. Bolivia, which originally banned crypto in 2014, shifted its policy in June 2024 to allow financial institutions to process crypto transactions through approved electronic channels, demonstrating a reversal of previous bans. Some jurisdictions allow holding crypto but prohibit trading, mining, or payments, which differs from a complete trading ban.

Considerations

Distinguishing between a complete trading ban and other restrictions is critical. In many cases, restrictions apply only to financial institutions, or enforcement is inconsistent. Additionally, peer-to-peer trading and underground markets often remain active even where bans exist, though users face legal risks.