This resolves YES if, by the end of 2026, Congress passes a bill with sweeping deregulatory measures, such as those recommended by DOGE.
-Must be signed into law by the president. If it has passed Congress by the end of 2026 but hasn't been signed by the president yet, I will wait to see if it signed or vetoed, and resolve accordingly.
-Does not have to explicitly be the measures recommended by DOGE.
-I will be the judge of what constitutes "sweeping". Needs to be government-wide (at least a few agencies), and must follow the spirit of the question. The intention of the bill should be eliminating large numbers of "regulations", broadly speaking.
-Still could count if it's part of another larger/different bill (so that it can pass via reconciliation, for example).
-If there's some sort of extreme gray area, I may resolve to a PROB, such as 50%.
Since this question has the potential to be subjective, I will not bet in this market!
Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Broad Deregulation Requirement
The bill must be broad and target deregulation across multiple agencies or large sectors of the federal bureaucracy.
Narrow or Targeted Measures
Actions that are limited to one or two agencies or specific measures (e.g., increasing defense production focused on countering specific issues) should be resolved as a NO.
1,000Would you consider something like the Cold War era deregulation to be sweeping (as it technically affected multiple govt agencies) or would it be too narrow because of its defence focus?
@elf hmmm, I think I will resolve in the spirit of the question; if there's like a broad bill with the intention of deregulating large sectors of the federal bureaucracy (across multiple agencies), then YES. If it's a targeted thing in a bill or rider like "increasing defense production to combat Chinese industrial dominance", or something narrow that only affects regulations from one or two agencies, probably NO?