If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
Basic
7
Ṁ1072026
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a government shutdown for any amount of time. A government shutdown is defined as a failure to pass legislation funding the federal government that results in federal employees being furloughed.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise
Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
57% chance
Will America have a government shutdown triggered by transgender policy before the next election?
2% chance
US Government Shutdown Before 2024 (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
54% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2025?
60% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown in 2024?
10% chance
Will the US Government shutdown before 2025?
9% chance
Will there be a government shutdown before March 2025?
44% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
8% chance
If democrats win the House of Representatives will there be a government shutdown by the end of 2026
37% chance