If Trump is elected, will there be a government shutdown before the 2026 midterms?
25
240Ṁ17902026
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a government shutdown for any amount of time. A government shutdown is defined as a failure to pass legislation funding the federal government that results in federal employees being furloughed.
This market will resolve to NO otherwise
Note: if this market is featured on the Manifold Politics page the @ManifoldPolitics account may make edits, issue clarifications, and decide the resolution in ambiguous cases.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a government shutdown before April 2026?
39% chance
If the republicans win the House of Representatives will there be a government shutdown by the end of 2026
69% chance
Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?
16% chance
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
51% chance
If Trump wins, will any country enact economic sanctions against the U.S. by the 2026 midterms?
61% chance
Will Trump do a good job before the 2026 midterms?