How many more US government shutdowns will there be in Trumps second term? | Manifold

How many more US government shutdowns will there be in Trumps second term?

4

1kṀ1059

2029

0.75 shutdowns

expected

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

73%

>=1

50%

>=2

35%

>=3

18%

>=4

13%

>=5

10%

>=6

Since market creation.

Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The first shutdown (occurring around market creation) is not counted in the total. For the market to resolve to ≥1, there would need to be a second shutdown during Trump's second term.

Trump's Second Term

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Just to confirm, the first one is not counted here?

@Quroe No it's not, for >=1 to resolve YES we'd need a second.

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