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MANIFOLD
How many more US government shutdowns will there be in Trumps second term?
19
แน€1kแน€5.3k
2029
3.77 shutdowns
expected
65%
>=3
28%
>=4
20%
>=5
15%
>=6
Resolved
YES
>=1
Resolved
YES
>=2

Since market creation. Uses https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdowns_in_the_United_States as resolution source.

  • Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The first shutdown (occurring around market creation) is not counted in the total. For the market to resolve to โ‰ฅ1, there would need to be a second shutdown during Trump's second term.

Market context
US Politics
Politics
Trump's Second Term
Trump
Gov shutdown
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bought แน€450 YES

As per updated description, now using Government shutdowns in the United States - Wikipedia as resolution source (remember that total-1 is what prediction is over, doing total would probably have made more sense but oh well). As such the current count is 2 additional shutdowns from 3 total. Apologies for delayed resolution on >=2!

Just to confirm, the first one is not counted here?

@Quroe No it's not, for >=1 to resolve YES we'd need a second.

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