Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Venus by the end of 2034?
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18
Ṁ890
2035
12%
chance

This question resolves YES if Wikipedia or similar mainstream sources of scientific information to a general audience say that there is currently microscopic life on Venus that is living independently of human support.

Fine print:

This will still resolve YES if the life is a result of human contamination. This is largely because I think there is a non-negligible probability that if we do discover life in this timeframe we will not be able to discern if it is from human contamination or not.

Human support means that the life's continued survival on venus requires in some way resources provided by humans; this does not need to have happened intentionally. So microbes surviving on a probe or remnants of a probe would not count, for example.

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