Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if, at any point during Donald Trump's second presidential term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029), a widespread internet shutdown occurs in the continental United States lasting more than 24 consecutive hours. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

If Trump leaves office early (due to death, resignation, removal, or any other reason), actions taken by his successor during the remainder of this term still qualify.

Definitions

• "Internet shutdown": A disruption credibly attributable to the federal government that renders internet access unavailable or practically unusable for the majority of users. Intent is irrelevant—accidental shutdowns count. This includes speeds throttled to the point of practical unusability (e.g., below 50 Kbps for the majority of users). This does not include blocking of specific websites or platforms (e.g., social media bans) while general-purpose internet access remains available and usable.

• "Widespread": Affecting more than 90% of the continental US population's normal consumer internet access (fixed broadband or mobile data). Availability of workarounds such as VPNs or mesh networks does not prevent resolution as YES.

• "Over 24 hours": The shutdown must be continuous for more than 24 hours. Brief intermittent restoration (under 1 hour) does not reset the clock.

• "Continental United States": The 48 contiguous states and Washington D.C. Alaska, Hawaii, and US territories are excluded.

Resolution Sources

Resolution will rely on credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, NYT, WSJ), official government statements, or technical analysis from organizations like NetBlocks, OONI, or Cloudflare Radar.

Ambiguous Causation

If a shutdown occurs and government involvement is disputed, resolution will be based on the preponderance of evidence from credible sources. If causation remains genuinely unclear 90 days after the term ends, the market may resolve N/A.