Conditional on Trump/Biden NOT winning, who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (DERIVATIVE MARKET, READ DESC)
22
181
Ṁ2.8KṀ1.4K
Nov 5
1D
1W
1M
ALL
31%
Gavin Newsom
23%
Kamala Harris
9%
Nikki Haley
5%
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
2%
Michelle Obama
2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Ron DeSantis
2%
Tim Scott (R-SC Senator)
2%
Dean Phillips
2%
Asa Hutchinson
2%
Tucker Carlson
1.9%
Elise Stefanik (R-NY Representative)
1.9%
Kristi Noem (R, SD Governor)
1.7%
Mike Pence
1.4%
Ted Cruz
1.4%
Gretchen Whitmer (D, Michigan Governor)
1.4%
Chris Christie
This market will resolve at a random time in November before election day. At resolution, this market resolves according to the implied odds given by the main US Elections market conditioned on neither Biden nor Trump winning:
For a simplified example, if the above market has the following probabilities when this market closes:
Joe Biden - 49%
Donald Trump - 47%
Kamala Harris - 3%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 1%
Then this market will resolve as following:
Kamala Harris - 75%
Robert F Kennedy Jr. - 25%
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