Who will next win a US Presidential Election besides Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
Who will next win a US Presidential Election besides Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
27
1kṀ1357Nov 12
44%Other
25%
JD Vance
16%
Kamala Harris
2%
Vivek Ramaswamy
2%
Pete Buttigieg
2%
Gavin Newsom
1.6%
Gretchen Whitmer
This market resolves to the next person to win a US Presidential Election besides Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This can be in 2024, 2028, or however long it takes for this to happen.
If you have any suggestions for other potential candidates to add, please leave a comment below.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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