Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?
Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?
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Resolves YES if, at some point in the year 2025, Google begins selling a new model of an internally-developed smartphone (like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Pixel but does not need to be named "Pixel")
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@citrinitas yeah - that's a good point for clarification. I'll tweak the title to be "Will Google create a new internally-developed smartphone model and sell it widely at some point in the year 2025 or 2026?"
The goal for this question is to track whether there is any internally-developed smartphone line still being actively developed by 2025
Let me know if you think of other improvements
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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