Reason magazine's Matt Welch recently wrote an article predicting "deadly" political violence in US streets in 2024 (https://reason.com/2023/12/26/prediction-2024-will-see-deadly-political-violence-in-the-streets/). I'm somewhat skeptical, though I will concede he doesn't specify what he considers deadly.

After a bit of research, the US average for this sort of thing in the 21st century seems to be about 8 deaths yearly. 2020 had 19, which is I think a good benchmark for "unusually bad." I have a related question bucketing out some options.

I will resolve this question YES if the related question below resolves to 15 deaths or higher:

Any other situation should resolve NO. I don't see any obvious ways this could resolve N/A (other than the underlying market resolving N/A, but that shouldn't happen for any reason). If you guys have questions or want clarification on edge cases feel free to ask. I do intend to bet in this market, but not the underlying one.