When will the Nazis will have a working atomic weapon (as per the majority opinion of the Atomic Security Task Force)?
5
310Ṁ315resolved Sep 24
100%34%
Late 1944
21%
By the end of 1943
27%
Early--Mid 1944
4%
Early--Mid 1945
4%
Late 1945
10%
1946 (or later)
For players of the "Atoms & Espionage: Oppenheimer's Enigma" game during Manifest 2023
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ45 | |
| 2 | Ṁ27 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 |
Sort by:
@AndyMartin Yeah, the Farm Hall transcripts are a great record. Definitely shows how far the Germans physicists were from even a concrete plan to build the bomb.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
16% chance
Will Germany acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
16% chance
When will the next attack by a nuclear weapon take place?
When will a nuclear weapon be used for military purposes?
What will be the next country to come into possession of their own nuclear weapon?
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
18% chance
Will a new nation possess nuclear weapons by 2025?
4% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance
Will there be a confirmed theft of an operational nuclear bomb before 2035?
23% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
23% chance